Global democracies in decline

Jim Carrey’s 1998 masterpiece The Truman Show was a study in how reality can be manipulated. It showed our increasing obsession with celebrities, and ways in which alternate reality can be sold. Note that this movie was made before the rise of social media marketing and other modern technologies that now control our daily lives. If a movie were to be made today, it would not stretch the imagination to call it The Trump Show, given the narrative presented by the current United States President. Some of it has merit; a lot of it is founded on alternate realities—also known as lies. Global democracies in decline

Indian Link’s editorial of last month (The Big Three reimagined), in which we discussed the growing alignment of the US, Russia and China since Trump came to the White House, has initiated fierce debate among our readers. While some feel that this may be a long bow to draw, others have acknowledged that at times it does feel that the world is heading towards a 2025 version of the Yalta Agreement. This version, as argued in the article, will allow an understanding between the three superpowers to have a greater say in their parts of the world, Russia in Eastern Europe, the US in the Western Hemisphere and China in Southeast Asia. 

The show orchestrated in the Oval Office during the infamous Trump-Zelenskyy-Vance meeting, in which the US President seemed to be singing from the Russian hymn sheet, certainly looked like an indication of a changing world order.

The collapse of the Soviet Union and its socialist allies in the 1990s eliminated any significant opposition to US supremacy. For 25 years or so, in this unipolar world, the US held unparalleled global dominance, and exerted global influence. But over the last decade, China has emerged as a serious competitor to the US, signalling the reemergence of a multipolarity in the global order.

The proxy war being fought in Ukraine between the US and Western Europe on one side, and Russia, China and North Korea on the other, has been protracted and expensive for both factions. While it was widely expected that sanctions against Russia imposed by the West would collapse its economy, that did not eventuate, due to Russia’s support from China and to an extent India, as these countries kept up their trade momentum with Russia. 

The US has borne a significant economic cost over the last three years on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although not $350-$500 billion as Trump repeatedly states, but closer to the $120 billion mark – while Europe has spent $138 billion. With the US now threatening to withdraw its support for Ukraine, the EU nations are being forced to increase their defence expenditure. This could well lead to internal tensions within the EU, if countries with more fragile economies or closer ties with Russia are not willing to come to the table. 

More importantly, will this be the beginning of the end of NATO, which was set up in 1949 to push back against Russia’s influence?

To mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US has twice voted alongside Russia at the United Nations, underscoring the Trump administration’s shift in stance on the war. Indicating an end to the long-standing US support for democracy, this leaves the door wide open to other superpowers who may have their own designs in their neighbourhood. China, for example, has long argued that Taiwan is a part of its territory, and the apparent changes in US foreign policy may well embolden them to take the next step there. Closer to home, Arunachal Pradesh in Northeast India has witnessed China’s passive-aggressive strategy toward India, which could escalate into open conflict. What next – Himachal? Sounds highly improbable, but we do live in a world of alternate reality.

Watch also for any repositioning of the Seventh Fleet from Japan in the near future as a signal of geopolitical shifts in the region.

For Australia, there will be intense pressure to build up its military capabilities and spend more on defence. 

Currently spending 2% of its GDP, the pressure is to increase it to 3% in the next 6-8 years. The increase from the current $56 billion to $130 billion will come at a cost, be it through higher taxation or reduction in government programs. One wonders if either of Australia’s two leaders will debate this issue in the forthcoming elections.  Global democracies in decline

The increased expenditure on defence needs to align with Australia’s reality, i.e. vast areas of land and sea to defend, with limited population. Rather than spending this money on America’s military discards, it should be allocated towards smart warfare purchases. 

As America wields power in an isolationist and self-interested way, global democracies must be resilient against the rise of authoritarianism. Global democracies in decline

READ MORE: Trump Ukraine WW3 Analysis: Less-explored angles – Indian Link