In 1945, as the world emerged from the devastation of World War II, the leaders known as the Big Three – Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin, and Franklin D. Roosevelt – gathered in Yalta, Crimea. Their goal was to delineate postwar spheres of influence across Europe. Each leader sought to safeguard their national interests while simultaneously striving for a broader objective of global peace.
Fast forward to the present, and we see a new set of powerful authoritarian leaders shaping international relations with little regard for humanity or global welfare. Since taking office, United States President Donald Trump has approached global affairs with an assertive style, ready to redefine the dynamics of power on the world stage. Critics may label his methods as erratic, yet there may be a strategic rationale behind his actions.
President Trump assumed the presidency as the 47th leader of the US, backed by a Republican Party that controlled both Houses of Congress and secured the popular vote. This unprecedented political advantage grants him significant authority, at least until the next elections for the House of Representatives. Trump Putin and Xi
In parallel, two other global strongmen, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, maintain firm control over their nations. All three exhibit scepticism toward institutions like the United Nations, believing that such multilateral organisations often hinder effective global governance. Within his first month in office, Trump withdrew the US from the World Health Organisation (WHO), threatened to cut funding to the UN, joined Libya, Yemen and Iran in not being a part of the Paris Climate accord, and dismantled USAID, endangering lives of millions globally. Trump Putin and Xi
Currently, a fragile ceasefire exists between Israel and Palestine, while ongoing discussions aim to halt hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, with the US acting as a mediator. The upcoming 9 May marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and should Trump successfully facilitate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, he may receive an invitation to join Putin and Xi at the military parade in Moscow’s Red Square.
This occasion could provide a platform to discuss a modern update to the 1945 Yalta Agreement, focusing on consolidating power among the three leaders. For example, China might gain greater leeway regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea, in exchange for curbing North Korea’s aggressive posture toward Japan. Russia could seek options to influence its former non-NATO states, thereby restoring its stature as a superpower, while the US would aim for increased flexibility in its relations with Canada and Greenland. There would be more emphasis on a ruthless pursuit of power rather than on fundamental human values.
From a US perspective, the priority is “America First”. Instead of investing trillions in managing global conflicts, Trump advocates for a bilateral approach to resolving international issues. This was evident in his administration’s discussions with Indian Prime Minister Modi, where it was suggested India should address its issues with Bangladesh independently. Tariffs and trade restrictions may further allow the US to sidestep previous global commitments and arrangements with allies. Trump Putin and Xi
For India, losing ground to China in this evolving geopolitical landscape would be a significant setback. However, with its economy valued at $3.4 trillion, India is dwarfed by China’s $14.7 trillion economy. Australia, historically seen as a U.S ally in the region, might feel betrayed after serving as the “deputy sheriff” in the Indo-Pacific, prompting it to strengthen ties with neighbouring countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and India.
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