US-Israel-Iran war
India stands at a precarious crossroads as the US-Israel-Iran war; now grinding into its third week in March 2026, it threatens to upend the region’s fragile balance and drag the world toward catastrophe.
The conflict has devolved into a brutal, no-holds-barred slugfest: a full-contact cage match between the unhinged and the outright deranged.
It has already claimed well over 2,000 lives across Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and beyond.
Relentless carpet-bombings, missile barrages, drone swarms, and strikes on nuclear sites like Natanz continue to drive up the death toll. Nuclear escalation is no longer a distant nightmare – it is a disturbingly plausible next chapter if either side miscalculates or corners the other into desperation.
For India, the stakes could hardly be higher. Over 9 million Indian citizens work across the Gulf, sending home around $50 billion in remittances each year. Prolonged chaos risks triggering mass evacuations, widespread job losses, and a severe blow to household incomes back home. Energy security is equally vulnerable: disruption to Gulf oil flows or the Strait of Hormuz is sending prices soaring, hammering India’s import-dependent economy and stalling its growth ambitions. The war is also forcing painful choices on trade corridors — pitting the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) against Iran-linked routes such as Chabahar — while testing New Delhi’s delicate balancing act between deepening ties with the US and Israel on one side, and longstanding relations with Tehran on the other.
This is not just another Middle East flare-up. It is a geopolitical wildfire that may singe India’s economy, diaspora, and strategic autonomy in ways few conflicts have before.
Immediate energy shock and everyday impact
The war erupted on 28 February with coordinated strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and targeted major military and nuclear installations. Iran responded with intense missile and drone attacks on Israeli targets, Gulf infrastructure, and US positions. It also imposed a near-total blockade on the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway through which over 20 percent of the world’s seaborne crude oil and a large share of liquefied natural gas pass.
The blockade has triggered a severe global energy crisis. For India, the world’s fourth-largest economy and a massive energy importer, the pain is immediate and intense. Around 80% of India’s natural gas and up to 60% of its crude oil imports travel through the Strait, mainly from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq.
With commercial insurers withdrawing war-risk coverage and Iranian forces turning away or threatening vessels, supplies have been badly disrupted. Benchmark crude prices have surged past $100 per barrel, with Iranian officials warning they could reach $200 if the standoff continues.
The impact is already hitting ordinary Indian homes and businesses hard:
- LPG shortages: Panic buying and long queues have broken out at distribution centres for cooking gas used by hundreds of millions of households.
- Food sector disruption: Restaurants, cloud kitchens, and street-food vendors in major cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Pune are cutting menus, shortening hours, or shutting down temporarily.
- Gig workers affected: Food delivery workers, many already financially vulnerable, have seen orders collapse and are urgently calling for government support.
Natural gas shortages are threatening fertiliser production, forcing India to seek emergency urea supplies from China. Higher petroleum prices are driving up the cost of everyday items—from plastic packaging to bottle caps – while large-scale events such as weddings are being scaled back or postponed due to fuel uncertainty.
India’s response and shifting alliances
To cope, India has dramatically increased oil imports from Russia. Purchases jumped 50% in the first week of March to 1.5 million barrels per day, with more tankers already en-route. This shift has delivered a major windfall to Moscow—an estimated extra $150 million in daily oil revenue, with total gains from the redirected demand likely between $1.3 billion and $1.9 billion so far. Russia has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries of the conflict.
Diplomatically, New Delhi is walking a tightrope. As the current chair of BRICS (of which Iran became a full member in 2024), India has refused to join Brazil, China, Russia, and South Africa in strongly condemning the initial US-Israeli strikes. At the same time, it co-sponsored a UN Security Council resolution criticising Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf states. India has carefully avoided direct criticism of the strikes on Iran or Lebanon.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly reminded India of Prime Minister Modi’s earlier description of Iran as a “friend” and urged BRICS to play a more active role in de-escalation. Several calls have taken place between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Iranian counterpart to ensure safe passage for Indian vessels. Iran has granted limited permissions for some LPG carriers and Saudi crude tankers, and its ambassador in New Delhi has spoken of potential cooperation both during and after the war.
At home, critics accuse the government of abandoning its traditional policy of strategic neutrality. They point to the muted response to Khamenei’s death (though the foreign secretary did sign a condolence book), the US sinking of an Iranian warship shortly after joint exercises with India, and Modi’s visit to Israel just before the strikes began. Many argue that India’s growing economic, defence, and investment ties with Israel and the Gulf Arab states have come at the expense of its historically closer relationship with Iran.
The human and long-term risks
The greatest long-term risk concerns the Indian diaspora in the Gulf. Around 9 million Indians live and work in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, sending home roughly $50 billion in remittances every year. Prolonged conflict threatens their jobs, particularly in oil, gas, and construction, where operations have already been suspended in many places. Safety concerns are rising, with some Indian workers caught in cross-border attacks.
Evacuating even a fraction of these millions in wartime would be an enormous – and possibly unfeasible – logistical challenge, far larger than the 200,000 Indians India successfully repatriated during the 1990–91 Gulf War. US-Israel-Iran war
India’s foreign policy is being pulled in two directions: strong strategic and commercial ties with Israel and the Arab Gulf states on one side, and longstanding cultural and geopolitical links with Iran on the other. While increased Russian oil and some American energy options offer short-term relief, India’s heavy dependence on Middle Eastern shipping routes leaves it highly vulnerable.
A prolonged conflict would almost certainly bring higher inflation, slower economic growth, wider trade deficits, and real hardship for millions of families dependent on Gulf remittances. These pressures are already being compounded by the falling value of the Indian rupee (currently around ₹65 to the Australian dollar and Rs 93 to the USD).
As the crisis continues, one thing is becoming painfully clear: events in the Middle East are no longer distant for India. They directly affect the price of cooking gas in kitchens, the income of gig workers, the stability of millions of families, and the future of one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies.
Never has the success of diplomatic efforts to restore calm and reopen vital shipping lanes mattered more for India.
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