With a resounding victory in the 2025 Federal Election, the ALP has claimed a mandate they have not enjoyed in generations. The count continues, but the Albanese government looks set to pick up several seats, triumphing in an election that was looming as a fait accompli for Peter Dutton’s Coalition just two months ago. As the post-mortem begins on what was a disastrous campaign for the opposition, there’s one key question: was the Australian election a referendum on US President Donald Trump? Trumpism fails in Australia
In some respects, it’s a confounding question. Never before in living memory has another country’s domestic political climate so influenced our own polls. And yet the inescapable reality is that the most impactful influence on the Australian election came not from within, but beyond our shores. It was a gift beyond Labor’s wildest dreams.
Following Trump’s stunning return to power last year, like many others, I wrote that, in re-electing a President seemingly determined to eliminate his political rivals – including by taking advantage of his Supreme Court-anointed immunity – the US had held a matchstick up close to democracy. Many dismissed this speculation as alarmist, as myopic, as “predictably turgid”.
Yet so calamitous and destructive has Trump’s first few months been, that moderates and traditional conservatives – at least outside the United States – have abandoned Trumpian politics in swathes.
Australia is not the only (or indeed the leading) example. Just last week, the Canadian Conservative Party slumped to an election defeat after leading polls by a staggering 27 points. There, like here, the conservative party leader not only lost his bid to lead the country, but suffered the ignominy of losing his seat. The primary reason? Canadians deemed the incumbent, Mark Carney, as better equipped to deal with the threat posed by the US President.
Dutton was long poised to bring a Trumpian policy agenda to Australia, underpinned by culture wars, a DOGE-style assault on the public sector, and a bulldozer approach to diplomacy.
Yet as Trump’s second term unfolded, so too did the electability of this agenda rapidly unravel. Trump’s tariffs were globally ridiculed. His assault on educational institutions, law firms, courts and even judges has terrified proponents of democracy. His warm embrace of shapeshifting billionaires and dictators bore a striking and distasteful contrast to his public humiliation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trumpism fails in Australia
The Coalition eventually read the tea leaves, but it was too late. By the time Dutton decided to begin distancing himself from Trump, the Coalition leader had already hitched his ride to a toxic wagon. Dutton became a walking contradiction.
Having promised that he would “get a deal done” with Trump on tariffs, he then revealed in a debate that he didn’t know Trump and hadn’t spoken to him. He failed to openly denounce NT Senator Jacinta Price’s clear admiration of the US President, yet refused to confirm whether he himself trusted Trump. He attacked Welcome to Country ceremonies, consistent with his position on the Voice referendum that he defeated, and a continuation of culture wars that have become the darling of the far right; yet he was forced into embarrassing policy backflips on proposed US-style public sector cuts and an end to working from home arrangements. Trumpism fails in Australia
It must be acknowledged that, in giving a gracious and humble concession speech, Dutton also denounced Trump, even if only indirectly. But this too was a stark contrast to Dutton’s 2023 attacks on the Australian Electoral Commission and on the veracity of Australia’s long-established voting method, which happens to be the envy of the world.
The 2025 election proved, if nothing else, that the integrity of the Australian electoral process remains its greatest strength. It must be defended to the bitter end. Trumpism fails in Australia
READ MORE: 2025 Federal Elections: The final countdown
