Bin Laden death: How Indo-Pak ties may be affected

Expect psychological impact on militant sympathisers, say experts

After the killing of Osama bin Laden, the evolving internal dynamics and stability of Pakistan will determine the fallout, if any, of this momentous event on its fractious relationship with India, experts said recently in New Delhi.
“It will affect us to the extent how the situation, fallout develops inside Pakistan,” said Jamia Milia Islami’s Pakistan studies programme associate professor Ajay Darshan Behera.
India has restarted a sustained dialogue process with Pakistan last month, which was stalled for nearly two years after the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack.
The world’s most wanted terrorist was shot dead in Pakistan, ending a 10-year manhunt that intensified with the traumatic Sep 11, 2001 terror attack on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon.
“Justice has been done,” declared US President Barack Obama from the East Room of the White House describing how American military and CIA operatives finally cornered the Al Qaeda leader in Abbottabad, just 50 km northeast of Pakistan’s capital Islamabad.
India had been putting pressure on Pakistan to turn the screws on the masterminds of the Mumbai attack, especially Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafez Sayeed, but there has been not much progress, with Pakistan citing the legal hurdles.
Indian home minister P. Chidambaram said Monday that bin Laden’s killing “deep inside Pakistan” gave legitimacy to concerns that Pakistan was still harbouring terror organisations.
Behera said that it remains to be seen how the relationship between the United States and Pakistan will now evolve. “Pakistanis obviously have a lot of explaining to do,” said Behera.
It also remained to be seen what will be the domestic fallout, in terms of retaliatory attacks inside Pakistan. “We also do not know now how the internal dynamics will change within the government.. there are too many unknowns now,” said Jawaharlal Nehru University’s Savita Pande.
Further, she said that the Pakistani establishment was in a fix right now over acknowledging any role in the raid. Except for a statement from the foreign office stating that the raid was an US operation, there has been virtual silence from the Pakistani government.
“If they say that they took part in the raids, then they will face the wrath of the extremists. If they claim ignorance, then it will look ridiculous. Either way, the legitimacy of the government is precarious,” Pande maintained.
But, any fallout on relations with India, vis-a-vis Osama’s death, is too premature, said experts. “I was anyway one of the sceptics of the talks, which may not amount to much. The main impact from today will be on their relationship with US,” she added.
A similar sentiment was expressed by P.R. Chari, research professor at Delhi-based think tank Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies. “The killing should not have any implication for India-Pakistan relations as it was an independent American operation and no new revelations have been made,” he said.
He said that it was an absurdity to simply assume that bin Laden was in the Abottabad compound without Pakistani knowledge. “It was very unusual that Osama be hiding so close to a military academy, its like living near the National Defence Academy (in Khadakwasla),” said Chari.

Indian security experts also feel that bin Laden’s demise will not have any direct impact on India, but the “psychological impact on militancy sympathisers” will have to be watched.

Ajai Sahni, executive director of New Delhi-based Institute of Conflict Management who also runs the South Asian Terrorism Portal, said, “There will be none whatsoever impact of Laden’s killing on the security situation here. But the impact on the morale of his sympathisers will depend on any major revenge strike by the Al Qaeda “.
Ved Marwah, former governor and security expert, felt that there will be a “psychological impact of disappointment and reality call” on the sympathisers in India. “They will realise the long arm of governments will catch them wherever they hide,” Marwah said.
But E.N. Rammohan, former chief of the Border Security Force (BSF), warned that they there may be few incidents of reprisals by extremist organisations like the Kerala-based Popular Front.”
“There are some outfits in India who admire Laden, if not under direct Al Qaeda command,” Rammohan said.
According to Sahni, the activities of the “jihadi terrorist organisations in India, like the Laskar-e-Taiba, will continue as they are all state-sponsored outfits by Pakistan.”
He said the psychological impact of Osama’s Indian supporters could be either way. “If Al Qaeda is able to stage some major strikes to revenge their leader’s killing, there may be a new tide of support for his organisation”, he added.
“Osama had been saying for years that he may be killed anytime and that he will die as a martyr. So yesterday’s killing will not unnerve his supporters much.”
Sahni said it was known “all over the world that Pakistani Army and establishment have been sheltering and shielding Laden.”
“They have been helping him to shift from one place to another. Since 2004, they had kept him away from limelight. But now the game is up,” Sahni said.
Marwah said there is less chance of revenge strikes in India as the Al Qaeda’s main enemies are “the United States and the Western countries”. India has never been on the main agenda of the terrorist outfit, he pointed out.
He said organisationally, the Al Qaeda will not be affected. “Because for a few years, the operations had been directed by the Al Qaeda Shoora (advisory council) not by Laden himself. They have already a second line of leaders.Laden was an icon of jihadi militants. His killing will take away the aura of the leader from his sympathisers here in India. There will be a realisation that terrorism, militancy and killing civilians will not achieve anything. And at last, the gunman, however protected, will go down by another mighty gun.”
“Politically and ideologically, Osama died a few months ago, when pro-democracy movement swept Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and other Arab countries. Instead for jihad, the ordinary Arabs came on the streets raising their issues of ‘roti, kapada and makaan’ and more importantly freedom,” Marwah recalled.
The slogans of the jasmine revolution had already confused the pro-jihadis in India, Marwah said: “And bin Laden’s killing will add to their distancing from the path of gun and terror”.
However, Rammahon said there may be some revenge strikes in India too.

“The Al Qaeda network will let off some suicide bombers to prove the terror organisation is still intact.”
“Though Al Qaeda does not operate in its name in India, some outfits like the Popular Front are ideologically and operationally linked to Laden’s outfit,” Rammohan said. IANS